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Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader, by Thomas N. Bulkowski
Ebook Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader, by Thomas N. Bulkowski
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Comprehensive coverage of the four major trading styles
Evolution of a Trader explores the four trading styles that people use when learning to trade or invest in the stock market. Often, beginners enter the stock market by:
- Buying and holding onto a stock (value investing). That works well until the trend ends or a bear market begins. Then they try
- Position trading. This is the same as buy-and-hold, except the technique sells positions before a significant trend change occurs.
- Swing trading follows when traders increase their frequency of trading, trying to catch the short-term up and down swings. Finally, people try
- Day trading by completing their trades in a single day.
This series provides comprehensive coverage of the four trading styles by offering numerous tips, sharing discoveries, and discussing specific trading setups to help you become a successful trader or investor as you journey through each style.
Trading Basics takes an in-depth look at money management, stops, support and resistance, and offers dozens of tips every trader should know.
Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading discusses when to sell a buy-and-hold position, uncovers which fundamentals work best, and uses them to find stocks that become 10-baggers—stocks that climb by 10 times their original value.
Swing and Day Trading reveals methods to time the market swings, including specific trading setups, but it covers the basics as well, such as setting up a home trading office and how much money you can make day trading.
- Sales Rank: #392158 in Books
- Brand: Brand: Wiley
- Published on: 2012-12-26
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.27" h x 1.02" w x 6.30" l, 1.50 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 320 pages
Features
- Used Book in Good Condition
Review
“The three books in this series were written for people unfamiliar with the inner workings of the stock market, but will still curl the toes of professionals, too. Research is used to prove the ideas discussed, but is presented in an easy to understand and light-hearted manner. You will find the books to be as entertaining as they are informative and packed with moneymaking tips and ideas. Use the ideas presented here to hone your trading style and improve your success. Whether you are a novice who has never purchased a stock but wants to, or a professional money manager who trades daily, these books are a necessary addition to any market enthusiast’s bookshelf.”
—Alan Battista, Stockineer.com Book Review
From the Inside Flap
Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading is the second volume in the Evolution of a Trader series. It is the ideal guide for those interested in building long-term wealth using the buy-and-hold strategy favored by legendary investors such as Warren Buffett and Ben Graham. It also features additional coverage of position trading, a popular trading style among today's value investors.
In the first part of the book, Bulkowski gets you up to speed on the full range of fundamental factors involved in buy-and-hold stock selection, including book value, price-to-earnings ratio, capital spending, cash flow, dividends, long-term debt, price-to-sales ratio, shares outstanding, return on shareholder equity, and more. He provides priceless tips on how long to hold and how to know when it's time to sell. The book includes handy tables matching fundamental factors against various hold times and showing which factor is most important for a particular hold time.
Popular chapters include how to double your money, finding and trading 10-baggers (stocks that increase in value tenfold), and selling buy-and-hold stocks.
The second part explores position trading. It introduces market timing to help remove the risk of buying and holding a stock for years. With the help of real-world trading examples, Bulkowski begins with the basics of market timing and offers priceless insights into the ways in which market trends influence stock prices. He arms you with an array of powerful chart patterns and reveals the ten most important factors that make chart patterns work. And he combines those factors into a scoring system to help boost your effectiveness—and your profits—as a position trader.
Bulkowski's work sets an example for how financial books should be written. He doesn't just repeat what others have said. Rather, he investigates and researches his facts before teaching the reader in an entertaining and informative style that is accessible for beginners and professionals.
Whether you're just getting started in investing or you're searching for new ways to increase the value of your portfolio and manage risk, Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading: Evolution of a Trader is your ticket to long-term financial success.
From the Back Cover
The series Evolution of a Trader explores four trading styles that people use when learning to invest in the stock market. Often, beginners enter the stock market by
Buying and holding on to a stock. That works well until a bear market begins. Then they try Position trading. This seeks to exit positions before a significant trend change occurs. Swing trading follows when traders try to catch short-term swings. Finally, people try Day trading by completing their trades in a single day. This series takes a detailed look at each of the four styles by offering numerous tips, sharing discoveries, and discussing specific trading techniques to help the reader be successful as they journey through each style.
The first book, Trading Basics, takes an in-depth look at money management, stops, support, and resistance, and offers dozens of tips every trader should know.
The second book, Fundamental Analysis and Position Trading, explains value investing and tests fundamental factors, such as book value, price-to-earnings, and price-to-sales ratios, to see how important they are to stock selection and performance. Chapters such as "How to Double Your Money," "Finding 10-Baggers," and "Trading 10-Baggers" put the fundamentals to work. Position trading introduces market timing to help remove the risk of buying and holding a stock for years.
The third book in the series, Swing and Day Trading, explains how to use chart patterns to swing and day trade. It reviews the basics, including the home office setup and the cost of day trading, and drills down into specific trading strategies such as the opening range breakout and the opening gap setup. It introduces new research on major reversal times and the time most likely to set the day's high and low. That is valuable information to a day trader.
Whether you are a novice who has never purchased a stock but wants to, or a professional money manager, these books are a necessary addition to any market enthusiast's bookshelf.
Most helpful customer reviews
22 of 23 people found the following review helpful.
Adding Fundamentals to Technicals...investor's dream
By Alan Battista
This review comes from stockineer.com which is why I wrote the review initially. It's worth sharing here as well to help others make their decision on the purchase of the book, so if the review sounds like it was written for another site, it was...just copied and pasted here.
As a technical investor, of the three books in the series, I believe I have the most to learn in this particular book because I haven't spent much time studying fundamental analysis. I just haven't needed to do so. However, as it is a strategy that others employ effectively, perhaps it's a worthy venture. At the end perhaps there is a good melding of techniques to better the odds of success. I'll dig in and let you know what I find.
Chapter 1: This is a short chapter that introduces buy and hold strategy.
Chapter 2: The second chapter discusses tips that Bulkowski suggests for shopping for stocks. He offers advice about what happens after a stock falls sharply in a bear market, what precedes mergers and how to interpret insider buying.
Chapter 3: Bulkowski offers up some very intriguing evidence about trading upon book value. I enjoyed this chapter very much. One thing that I'd like to use in my own trading is the tactic of buying 8 Dow stocks with the lowest price to book value as it beats the index most of the time. The lesson here would be to identify these stocks and then employ technical trading to them as that's what best suits my style. I'm interested in gathering my own personal experience in this matter as trading using this metric appears quite profitable.
Chapter 4: Capital spending is the amount of money a company spends to buy property. This would seem positive over the long run, but what do buyers think? Bulkowski presents several tables showing average stock price gain/loss each year as a function of capital spending. The results may surprise you initially, but he offers an explanation in the chapter summary.
Chapter 5: Cash flow is operating cash flow minus capital expenditures, so this is a fine chapter to follow capital spending. The chapter points out several ways cash flow can be used in analysis. Is it increasing or decreasing? How does it compare to price? Bulkowski uses a median value of price to cash flow of 9.17 and then compares the performance of stocks above and below this value. Tom confirms previous work with his analysis using this cash flow metric. Other cases were run for small/mid/large cap stocks and those results were also consistent with previous analysis and offers good advice for buy and hold investors.
Chapter 6: This chapter on dividends will be of interest to many. The results show that dividend stocks perform better than non dividend stocks. Dividend cuts are bad in the year of the cut, but they tend to outperform in the following years. What should you do after a dividend cut...the results suggest that you should sell immediately!
Chapter 7: Long term debt is addressed as Bulkowski discusses trends in taking on or paying it off in comparison to trends in price (which is what we really care about). These results are also broken into different market capitalizations, small/mid/large. The moral of this story is that small caps are stellar when combined with the correct trends in debt.
Chapter 8: Price/Earnings Ratio, or more commonly P/E Ratio gets a lot of attention from investors. Personally, I've never found it useful because it offers no trading signals. Bulkowski points out via statistical evidence that there is some value in checking out P/E. He compares high vs low PE? ratios, increasing vs decreasing as well as small/mid/large caps. For every $10k invested he shows the average value of that investment over 5 years for each of these cases.
Chapter 9: Price to Sales Ratio (PSR) compares the stock's current price per share to its annual sales per share. This metric is used to show which ratios offer your best chances for success. Not all PSRs are created equal so he offers a table of about 40 sectors' PSRs. It's a pretty neat table.
Chapter 10: Return on Equity (ROE) chapter is a bit ho-hum, not because of the content but because of the end results. Suffice to say that it won't be a metric that I'll use...especially since I don't use it currently.
Chapter 11: Share buybacks and common stock offerings is the headline of this chapter. If you've owned stocks that have gone through this you probably know which way the stock moves directly after, but how long does it last and at which point is most advantageous to buy/sell? These are the questions answer herein.
Chapter 12: This is the chapter where I say, "Thanks Tom!" He's sorted all of the previous chapters' results into tables that show the best investment odds based on a combination of fundamental factors. His summary at the end is exactly what I noticed in reading up to this point. Keep up on combinations involving book value. My gears have been turning since reading this as to how I can incorporate it into my technical analysis. I have good feelings about this.
Chapter 13: How to double your money! This sounds like a good chapter to check out based on the title. I found it to be a very good chapter with great statistics. Which fundamentals are most common to stocks that double? After going through them individually, page 112 (which I have book marked in my edition) gives the top 9 criteria to search. The statistical evidence is rather convincing so I'm on board with using this type of investigation to screen for stocks, adding my own technical analysis for entry points.
Chapter 14 and 15: If doubling your money were not good enough, the next two lengthy chapters (in comparison to the former chapters) devotes a lot of effort in the identification, trading and death of a 10-Bagger. 10 baggers are rare and I've only one to my name. I passed on another that I still kick myself for to this day. My excuse is that my friends told me not to trade it. From then on, I only do what I think is best as a result. Perhaps I'll find another after reading these chapters, although my senses tell me that I typically have trouble holding that long. I'm only talking years, but the road is often bumpy for these stocks. For buy and holders...read the chapter. It'll give you typical setups and statistics common to 10 baggers, as well as time frames telling you what to expect. The cautionary tale of a death of a 10 bagger is that it is often swift and vile, so be careful with those big profits.
Chapter 16: Buy and hold doesn't necessarily mean hold forever. Four phases of a stock are identified, and phase 2 is where you'd like to buy. I liked the different phases and phase 2 is essentially what I seek in my trades. This is just a different way of identifying the start of the trend. It's not bad to have another tool in the box. There are methods to identify when to sell your buy and hold stock, including a special situation called a "cloud bank" pattern. I'd never heard of it referred to by this name, but is certainly a situation to keep in mind if the opportunity is presented.
Chapter 17: This chapter illustrates the fundamentals the Bulkowski uses himself, with a checklist at the end. It is essentially a review of the formerly presented material.
Chapter 18: About 2/3rds through the book and this is where the discussion of position trading begins. It starts with a simple into of what position trading is and is not as well as why this is a profitable method to invest. It's somewhere between buy and hold and swing trading.
Chapter 19: The conversation gets a little deeper into position trading. About a page is devoted to "news" and as an average investor, you may glaze over important sections like this throughout the book because you may just be absorbing this information for the first time and haven't really seen it in action. There's actually several important pieces of information that you shouldn't glaze over on these simple pages. Other very key items are discussed, like trading with the market trend. A table is then presented that shows the percentage of stocks that have up/down days with the market over a daily, weekly and monthly scale. The results are pretty consistent across the board...interesting. More tables are presented to show the best patterns for trading. These tables are presented in Tom's other books, but for completeness they are appropriate here as well.
Chapter 20: You only have so much money and there are tons of trades out there. When you find them, which are the best? There's a scoring system as well as data to back it up. I can't say that I have a documented scoring system, but I do have reasons why I like or dislike some trades vs other. Several of these were mentioned so I can vouch for several of these personally. I may have added a few others after reading this chapter. Oh yeah, a great take away from this chapter is to keep your trading rules simple! I don't have a hundred rules that I need to trade....at the end of the day, it all comes down to price (in my opinion anyway).
Chapter 21: Bulkowski shares some of his own trades with a first person commentary of what's going on in his mind. It's easy to point at a chart (for some people) and say, "there's the place to buy!" However, when real money's on the table your mind can play tricks. The entry points may be more obvious than the exit points and could you, or should you, follow that inner voice? There are often numerous reasons to buy, not to buy, when to sell...all these are put together in three trade examples. I encourage you to do the same. Take notes on your trades. What did you see at that time? Stockineer is a running documentary, and that's how I keep track of my observations. Looking back is how you learn with the benefit of hindsight.
Chapter 22: It seems that a Bulkowski book isn't complete without a discussion of mistakes. Yup, we all make them and we make them for a variety of reasons. Of course, looking back is always easier than when in the heat of the moment. Limiting mistakes is really the key to great investing, so read up.
Chapter 23: Ah, the final chapter. I've gotten through the nearly 300 pages and I want to review, what's a trader to do? Well, if you haven't made notes as I have, you're still in luck. The last chapter highlights the key points from each chapter in the form of a checklist. Each chapter has this list at the end, but here it is in one place. Thanks for that Tom!
Summary: Of the three book set, I saved this book for last because I thought it'd be my least favorite or least valuable because "fundamentals" was in the title. When I trade, it's typical that I don't even know what the company does because I'm just looking for price patterns and technical indicators, and the trade rarely lasts more than a couple of months at most. As a result, the longer term benefits of studying fundamentals is often lost on me. As it turns out, this was my favorite of the series. It gave me insight into areas where I'm not particularly well-versed. There's no reason why as technical traders we can't incorporate fundamentals. After all it's just one more level of screening. I've already set up a custom screener based on the ones presented in this book. Based on that, I've put eyes on charts for ones that looked most technically "juicy." I really like this method of blending technicals and fundamentals. You'll find people that aren't fans of technical trading and people that argue fundamentals offer no timing....I'm not sure you'll find any arguements by using both. I've already mentioned that my swing trades are often very short in duration, but that represents only a portion of my portfolio. Others are longer term buy and holds. Using the methods in this book statistically you can pick the best fundamentally performing stocks with a scanner and then using technicals for the entry points (as well as exit points if it goes sour). From then, hold on.
I've read other reviews on Amazon, and there was some criticism of Bulkowski mentioning his other books in this series, suggesting this is a sales pitch. Tom does reference books from this series and others from his collection, but I don't view this as a sales pitch. As a blogger of technical trading, I always reference my old work because in the interest of time and print space you can't recreate a whole article every time it comes up. You'll often see me link to old chart patterns, definitions of indicators, breakouts, etc because it's not possible to rewrite the story every time. For those that familiar with the concepts, they can move on. For others, they may appreciate the footnote that points them to further reading....after all, they are trying to educate themselves.
Should you buy the whole series or parts of the series is probably what you are trying to figure out. Well, that depends on your personal situation. For me, I would have happily purchased books 2 and 3, passing on "Trading Basics." I did pick up a few ideas from it, but I've been trading for awhile so more advanced tactics and statistics was more for me. However, since writing the review of "Trading Basics" a few readers have purchased the book and this is exactly what they were seeking to get into the game, which is exactly it's intention. I am happy to have the whole series on my shelf, along with my nearly complete library of Bulkowski's books...yeah, I'm a fan. As an engineer, it's the statistics that get me, and what separates these books from others that I've read.
3 of 4 people found the following review helpful.
Very sound and informative . . .
By Shawn Irwin
By now I have read several books by Thomas Bulkowski, and every one of them was well worth it. What I find the most appealing about his books is that he uses statistics to analyse practically everything, and when you can look at trades from a statistical perspective, you can vastly improve your trading. You might think that statistics would be boring . . . but not so . . . he really has done the work for you . . . and when you see a trade that looks like something he has mentioned in his book, and you look it up and he gives you what the average percent gain, failure rates, etc., it is far from boring, it is just plain informative, and gives you at lot of food for thought when you are considering a trade. If you have not read any of his books about chart patterns though, you probably want to do that before reading this book. This book is outstanding, in every way.
1 of 1 people found the following review helpful.
An excellent book, even if overpriced
By Tom Beckman
An excellent book, even if overpriced. Bulkowski covers many fundamental valuation indicators, and some technical charts, as well as suggesting how to pick multi-baggers. Good for DIY investors.
See all 9 customer reviews...
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